On CNN, Harry Enten, a data reporter claimed that Joe Biden made a misleading statement in recent days. When confronted about poll numbers that showed the incumbent 46th president trailing his predecessor Donald Trump, Biden claimed that in the past many candidates who were trailing in the polls at this stage of the race made a turnaround and went on to win the general election. Enten reviewed the data and claimed that the president’s claim was misleading, as in 8 scenarios, only 2 candidates have come back to win an election after trailing at this point in the contest. Enten later attempted to clarify that he did not mean to say the president was being dishonest.
Many polls show a tight race between Trump and Biden. A recent report by the Hill gave Biden a narrow 1.5% lead over Trump in Virginia. This statistic was calculated by averaging findings in 22 separate polls. Biden won the state of Virginia by 10 points in 2022, and the last time a Republican executive candidate won Virginia in a presidential election was in 2004. Even in New Jersey, a very politically-liberal state federally speaking recent polls have shown that Donald Trump and Joe Biden are locked in battle separated by only 2 points. Trump currently leads Biden 43% to 41% in a GOP-friendly poll. Biden won New Jersey by a staggering 16 points in 2020. The federal Senate race between Andy Kim and Curtis Bashaw is also somewhat close, with one poll predicting a 2-point lead for Andy Kim should the disgraced incumbent Bob Menendez attempt to stay on the ballot. New Jersey has not sent a Republican Senator to Washington since 1972 and has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. The last time a Republican was even remotely close presidentially in a contest was in 2004 when George Bush lost statewide to John Kerry by around 7 points.