On Tuesday, July 9th, in News Central, CNN senior statistics reporter Harry Enten predicted that President Joe Biden’s loss in November would result in Democrats losing control of the Senate and House of Representatives.
Enten said that when you look at the national polls, such as the generic Congressional ballot for the House, it shows that they are +3 Republican in the Wall Street Journal poll, +3 Republican in the Monmouth University poll, and +2 Republican in the latest CNN poll.
It appears that Republicans are in the lead, at least in the House race, due to Donald Trump’s commanding lead. Joe Biden’s campaign may be in somewhat less favorable circumstances, according to these polls. When Biden is down four, five, or six points, it’s hard to catch up.
Host John Berman then asked what the Senate situation looked like.
As Enten pointed out, the campaign for the Senate races and control for Democrats will be effectively lost if Donald Trump is elected.
Additionally, he said that straight ticket voting has been the norm recently, and he found it hard to believe that Democrats running down the ticket could ever achieve such a remarkable feat as garnering more support than Joe Biden would and gaining a majority in the Senate or taking control of the House.
New polling puts Trump six points ahead of Joe Biden in Wisconsin. Democrats are worried that this could not be an exception but rather a sign of Trump’s far larger victory. It is quite likely that Trump will win the state once again, just as he did in 2016.
In a two-person contest, Trump still has a significant lead over the president. With 50% of the vote in this hypothetical, Trump is five percentage points ahead of Biden, who receives 45%. Trump’s lead among independents shrinks to four points net. He now has a 97-point edge among Republicans and a net 91-point lead among Democrats, up from 84% in the broader field.