The latest quarterly survey of economists by Bankrate found that the country’s top economic experts believe that while the chances of avoiding a recession over the next year are improving, the risk of recession still remains, Yahoo Finance reported.
Based on the average forecast of experts surveyed, the odds of a recession between now and next September have fallen to 46 percent, a 13-point drop from the previous quarterly survey which had the odds at 59 percent, and the lowest odds since the survey conducted in the first quarter of 2022.
In the latest survey, the majority of economists surveyed, 59 percent, place the odds of a recession between now and next fall at below 50 percent. In the previous quarterly survey in July, the majority of economics, 78 percent, said the odds of a recession were greater than 50 percent.
Based on the latest survey, the chances of a recession ranged from 15 percent to as much as 90 percent. Nearly 1 in 4 economists said the odds of a recession in the next year were at 25 percent or less.
Unlike the previous quarterly survey, none of the economists in the latest survey suggested that a recession is a 100 percent certainty.
The survey forecast reflects an improved outlook for the economy as the job market and consumer spending continue to act as an engine for economic growth while helping the US financial industry avoid a long-anticipated downturn.
But economist Tuan Nguyen from RSM said while the outlook is good, there are still risks, including a possible government shutdown next month, the ongoing UAW strike, and “the lagged impact of rate hikes.” Despite this, Nguyen said economists anticipate that the economy should make it through to September 2024 without a downturn.
However, another 41 percent of economists surveyed still believe the odds that the US economy will enter a recession by next fall are greater than 50 percent, suggesting that many US economists still believe that a recession is more likely than not in the coming year.