Hurricane RISK SOARS – NOAA Predicts Active Season

NOAA forecasts an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season with up to 19 named storms, raising concerns for coastal communities as warmer ocean temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions create a perfect breeding ground for powerful storms.

At a Glance 

  • NOAA predicts 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes for the 2025 Atlantic season
  • Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear create favorable conditions for storm development
  • The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with a 60% chance of above-normal activity
  • Despite recent budget concerns, NOAA officials claim to be fully staffed and prepared for the 2025 season
  • Experts urge coastal residents to stay informed as forecasts can change rapidly during hurricane season

Above-Normal Hurricane Activity Expected

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting above-average storm activity. Meteorologists project 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 of which could become hurricanes, and 3 to 5 potentially developing into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher with winds exceeding 111 mph. This forecast significantly exceeds the historical average of 6 to 7 hurricanes per year, with only 3 typically reaching major hurricane status. Officials estimate a 60% probability of an above-normal season.

The 2025 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 through November 30, follows a particularly active 2024 season that produced 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes with 5 reaching major hurricane status. This trend of increasingly active hurricane seasons has raised concerns among emergency management officials and coastal communities about the potential for destructive storms making landfall along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States. 

Perfect Storm of Conditions

Several key environmental factors are driving the forecast for heightened hurricane activity. Above-average sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin provide essential energy for tropical cyclone formation and intensification. This warming trend, combined with neutral conditions in the equatorial eastern Pacific following recent La Niña conditions, creates an environment conducive to hurricane development. Historically, neutral or La Niña patterns typically correspond with more active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic. 

“Everything’s in place for an above average season,” said Ken Graham, Director of the National Weather Service. “Surface sea temperatures are warmer than average, and they are the ‘No. 1 contributor to the whole thing’.” 

Meteorologists also anticipate weak wind shear conditions across the Atlantic, removing a significant limiting factor that typically disrupts tropical cyclone formation. Additionally, increased activity from the West African Monsoon is expected to generate more tropical waves moving off the African coast, providing the seed disturbances that can develop into named storms. Combined with high heat content in both the air and ocean water, these conditions create a favorable environment for hurricane development and intensification. 

NOAA Preparedness Despite Challenges

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) achieved record forecast track accuracy in 2024, but concerns have emerged regarding budget and staffing cuts that could potentially impact forecast quality. Recent reports highlighted challenges with NOAA’s hurricane hunter aircraft fleet, including aging planes and insufficient maintenance technicians. The Government Accountability Office identified these issues as potential limitations to the agency’s hurricane monitoring capabilities. 

“NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation’s environmental and economic resilience,” an agency spokesperson stated.

Despite these concerns, NOAA officials maintain that both the National Hurricane Center and hurricane hunter operations are “fully staffed” and “ready to go” for the 2025 season. The agency has upgraded its Hurricane Forecast Analysis System, which is reportedly outperforming other models. NOAA and U.S. Air Force hurricane hunters are prepared for deployment, supported by the latest forecasting models and private weather balloon data to ensure accurate storm tracking and intensity predictions. 

Public Preparedness Critical

With the heightened risk of hurricane activity, experts emphasize the importance of public preparedness and staying informed throughout the season. Residents in vulnerable coastal areas should develop emergency plans, understand evacuation routes, and assemble disaster supply kits well before any storms threaten. The naming convention for 2025 includes Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, and Erin among others, with storms receiving names once they reach tropical storm strength with sustained winds of 39 mph or higher. 

“Make sure you get the latest forecast, please. It changes, and social science tells us that people latch onto that first forecast. It’s called anchoring. So we’ve got to remind people, ‘Keep updating your forecast, keep looking for the latest information’,” Graham said.

Storm names are maintained by the World Meteorological Organization and recycled every six years unless a storm is particularly destructive or deadly, in which case the name is retired. With the potential for multiple significant hurricanes, coastal residents are advised to monitor weather forecasts regularly throughout the season and heed all evacuation orders from local officials to ensure their safety during what could become a memorable hurricane season.

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