Former President Donald Trump holds the lead over President Joe Biden in numerous recent battleground state polls and national surveys, showcasing his ongoing political influence despite facing criminal indictments over the summer. The current administration has had a lukewarm reception from voters.
Various polls show that Trump surpasses Biden by 1 to 9 points in essential swing states, and nationally, the lead ranges from 1 to 10.
When speaking to the Daily Caller News Foundation, polling experts mentioned a discernible trend favoring Trump, although some emphasized it’s premature to predict election outcomes. Nathan Klein of OnMessage Inc. conveyed to the DCNF, “Trump’s potential to win a general election has always been present, and the chances increase with each day of Biden’s presidency.”
While many of Trump’s leads in swing states fall within the statistical margin of error, there’s a perceptible upward trend. This trend might be attributed to factors like the prevailing political climate and the public’s perception of Biden. Approximately 70 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, with Biden’s approval ratings hovering around 40 percent.
In states with close results in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — Trump leads Biden by 41 percent to 35 percent based on a mid-September Reuters/Ipsos survey.
A recent Quinnipiac University poll indicates Trump leading Biden by 2 points in Pennsylvania, a pivotal state in the 2020 election outcome. Additionally, Trump surpasses Biden by 48 percent to 39 percent among independent voters—a Rasmussen Reports survey from Sept. 15 places Trump ahead by 47 percent to 38 percent in Georgia.
Trump also bests Biden in North Carolina by 4 points, a slight increase from his 2020 victory margin in the state. Klein emphasized, “Considering Trump only lost Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin by a cumulative 40,000 votes, it was always a misjudgment to assume Biden would effortlessly secure re-election if facing Trump again.”
Klein added that Biden’s decreasing numbers reflect issues like crime, immigration, and various crises that adversely impact his public perception. A recent figure suggests nearly 60 percent of Americans disapprove of Biden’s approach to immigration.
In a national contest, a late September poll from McLaughlin & Associates shows Trump beating Biden 47 percent to 43 percent. John McLaughlin, CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, which has ties to the Trump campaign, emphasized to the DCNF that their goal is to reclaim the presidency and that current polling, even from varied sources, shows them in a strong position.