Hormuz Shutdown Risk: Markets Rattle

Close-up of multiple gas pumps at a fuel station

TotalEnergies’ chief is warning that a closed Strait of Hormuz could jolt global energy markets harder than many governments want to admit.

Quick Take

Patrick Pouyanné says the Strait of Hormuz must stay open, even if transit costs money, because free flow matters for markets.^[1]
He warns that a blockade lasting more than three months could create serious supply problems.^[1]^[5]
He also says a longer closure could drive LNG prices sharply higher by summer or September.^[2]
The push for bypass pipelines reflects a real weakness: current Gulf routes cannot fully replace Hormuz.^[21]^[22]

Why the Warning Matters

Patrick Pouyanné told Semafor that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is “fundamental for the freedom of markets and global markets,” even if ships must pay a toll.^[1] He added that if the war and blockade last more than three months, the world will face serious supply issues.^[1]^[5] That message matters because Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, and even short disruptions can push up prices fast.^[22]

His comments also carry a clear timing risk. At a separate appearance, Pouyanné said he expected very high LNG prices by summer and September if the strait stays shut.^[2] That warning is aimed at Europe as much as the Gulf, because gas storage levels still matter and markets may not have enough time to adjust if flows stay tight. The concern is not only oil. It also includes gas, diesel, jet fuel, and fertilizer-linked supply chains.^[2]^[5]

What TotalEnergies Wants Built

Pouyanné’s answer is simple in theory and hard in practice: build more pipelines that bypass Hormuz.^[4]^[8] Reuters reported that he urged investment in Gulf pipeline routes, including possible paths through the United Arab Emirates and Iraq.^[8] He also identified Syria as a possible route in one report.^[4] The idea is to reduce reliance on a narrow waterway that can be blocked, delayed, or made too risky for tankers during a crisis.

That proposal sounds decisive, but the research package shows a major gap between the idea and the reality. Current bypass systems can only move a fraction of the oil that normally crosses Hormuz.^[21]^[22] Even the strongest alternative routes still depend on spare capacity, political deals, and major upgrades.^[21] In plain terms, the region has some escape valves, but it does not yet have a full replacement for the strait.

The Capacity Problem

That shortage is the core problem for anyone calling bypass pipelines an immediate fix. One analysis says existing bypass lines can replace less than 30 percent of the oil flow that goes through Hormuz, with no real LNG substitute available.^[10] Another review says the available spare or reroutable capacity is about 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels a day, far below the roughly 20 million barrels a day that usually transits the strait.^[22] Those numbers explain why markets still panic when Hormuz is threatened.

TotalEnergies called for major new Middle East pipeline investments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, warning that months of Iran-linked disruptions have exposed a critical vulnerability in global energy supplies.#Forbes

For more details: 🔗 https://t.co/XnRjQwwgYO pic.twitter.com/xE1ToUH4nS

— Forbes Middle East (@Forbes_MENA_) June 23, 2026

The engineering and financing burden is also huge. One study in the research package says a full network to replace Hormuz would need about ten pipelines, cost tens of billions of dollars, and take many years to finish.^[5] That does not make new projects pointless. It does mean they are slow tools for a fast crisis. The practical near-term answer, according to the research, is expanding what already exists while diplomacy tries to keep the strait open.^[21]^[22]

Why the Story Is Bigger Than One CEO

This debate reflects a wider problem in global energy policy. Governments and companies know chokepoints are risky, but they also know replacement infrastructure is expensive, slow, and politically messy.^[20]^[25] That leaves the world dependent on a route that can be shaken by war, sanctions, or even the threat of war. For consumers, the result is familiar: higher fuel bills, supply strain, and more pressure on inflation when markets start to fear shortages.^[1]^[2]

The deeper issue is trust. When one of the world’s largest energy executives says the system needs a redesign, it reinforces a view shared by many on both sides of the political divide: the current setup is fragile, and public leaders have not solved it.^[4]^[22] The research does not prove that bypass pipelines will quickly fix the problem. It does show why the argument keeps returning whenever Hormuz turns dangerous again.^[1]^[21]